Danielle Robinson & Julia Bowling
December 21, 2015
library("ggplot2")
library("ggplot2")
library("tidyr")
library("dplyr")
require(scales)
opts_chunk$set(fig.width=5, fig.height=5)
indo <- read.csv("newindo.csv")
code <- read.csv("islands.csv")
indo <- left_join(indo, code, by=NULL, copy=FALSE)
indo.agg <- indo %>%
group_by(Event, Province, Year, Island) %>%
summarise(events=sum(DataCards, na.rm=TRUE), deaths=sum(Deaths, na.rm=TRUE), injured=sum(Injured, na.rm=TRUE), missing=sum(Missing, na.rm=TRUE), housesdestroyed=sum(Houses.Destroyed, na.rm=TRUE), housesdamaged=sum(Houses.Damaged, na.rm=TRUE), victims=sum(Victims, na.rm=TRUE), affected=sum(Affected, na.rm=TRUE), evacuated=sum(Evacuated, na.rm=TRUE), lossUSD=sum(Losses..USD, na.rm=TRUE), lossLOCAL=sum(Losses..Local, na.rm=TRUE), cropdamage=sum(Damages.in.crops.Ha., na.rm=TRUE), agriculture=sum(Agriculture, na.rm=TRUE), power=sum(Power.and.Energy, na.rm=TRUE), relief=sum(Relief, na.rm=TRUE), forest=sum(Plantation.Forest, na.rm=TRUE))
summary(indo.agg)
Event Province Year
FIRE :162 KALIMANTAN TIMUR : 31 Min. :1990
FLOODS :290 JAWA TENGAH : 28 1st Qu.:2003
FOREST FIRE: 41 SULAWESI SELATAN : 27 Median :2006
JAWA BARAT : 26 Mean :2006
SUMATERA BARAT : 26 3rd Qu.:2010
KALIMANTAN SELATAN: 25 Max. :2012
(Other) :330
Island events deaths injured
Java :129 Min. : 1.00 Min. : 0.000 Min. : 0.0
Kalimantan: 98 1st Qu.: 2.00 1st Qu.: 0.000 1st Qu.: 0.0
Sulawesi : 90 Median : 5.00 Median : 0.000 Median : 0.0
Sumatra :176 Mean : 12.35 Mean : 5.032 Mean : 412.6
3rd Qu.: 12.00 3rd Qu.: 4.000 3rd Qu.: 3.0
Max. :183.00 Max. :347.000 Max. :60149.0
missing housesdestroyed housesdamaged victims
Min. : 0.000 Min. : 0.0 Min. : 0.0 Min. :0
1st Qu.: 0.000 1st Qu.: 0.0 1st Qu.: 0.0 1st Qu.:0
Median : 0.000 Median : 0.0 Median : 0.0 Median :0
Mean : 1.213 Mean : 279.2 Mean : 341.7 Mean :0
3rd Qu.: 0.000 3rd Qu.: 77.0 3rd Qu.: 0.0 3rd Qu.:0
Max. :140.000 Max. :21924.0 Max. :26623.0 Max. :0
affected evacuated lossUSD lossLOCAL
Min. : 0 Min. : 0 Min. :0 Min. : 0
1st Qu.: 0 1st Qu.: 0 1st Qu.:0 1st Qu.: 0
Median : 0 Median : 0 Median :0 Median : 0
Mean : 24216 Mean : 7770 Mean :0 Mean : 345969
3rd Qu.: 564 3rd Qu.: 1000 3rd Qu.:0 3rd Qu.: 1400
Max. :4515837 Max. :522569 Max. :0 Max. :133500220
cropdamage agriculture power relief
Min. : 0 Min. : 0.000 Min. :0 Min. :0
1st Qu.: 0 1st Qu.: 0.000 1st Qu.:0 1st Qu.:0
Median : 0 Median : 0.000 Median :0 Median :0
Mean : 2769 Mean : 3.156 Mean :0 Mean :0
3rd Qu.: 284 3rd Qu.: 2.000 3rd Qu.:0 3rd Qu.:0
Max. :186530 Max. :90.000 Max. :0 Max. :0
forest
Min. : 0.0
1st Qu.: 0.0
Median : 0.0
Mean : 667.7
3rd Qu.: 0.0
Max. :186022.0
indo.agg$death <- as.numeric(indo.agg$deaths>0)
floods<-subset(indo.agg, Event == "FLOODS", drop=FALSE)
fires<-subset(indo.agg, Event=="FIRE", drop=FALSE)
forestfires<-subset(indo.agg, Event=="FOREST FIRE", drop=FALSE)
indoisland.agg <- indo %>%
group_by(Event, Island, Year) %>%
summarise(events=sum(DataCards, na.rm=TRUE), deaths=sum(Deaths, na.rm=TRUE), injured=sum(Injured, na.rm=TRUE), missing=sum(Missing, na.rm=TRUE), housesdestroyed=sum(Houses.Destroyed, na.rm=TRUE), housesdamaged=sum(Houses.Damaged, na.rm=TRUE), victims=sum(Victims, na.rm=TRUE), affected=sum(Affected, na.rm=TRUE), evacuated=sum(Evacuated, na.rm=TRUE), lossUSD=sum(Losses..USD, na.rm=TRUE), lossLOCAL=sum(Losses..Local, na.rm=TRUE), cropdamage=sum(Damages.in.crops.Ha., na.rm=TRUE), agriculture=sum(Agriculture, na.rm=TRUE), power=sum(Power.and.Energy, na.rm=TRUE), relief=sum(Relief, na.rm=TRUE), forest=sum(Plantation.Forest, na.rm=TRUE))
head(indoisland.agg)
Source: local data frame [6 x 19]
Groups: Event, Island [1]
Event Island Year events deaths injured missing housesdestroyed
(fctr) (fctr) (int) (int) (int) (int) (int) (int)
1 FIRE Java 1998 1 0 0 0 362
2 FIRE Java 1999 1 0 0 0 38
3 FIRE Java 2001 21 0 3 0 18
4 FIRE Java 2002 16 0 0 0 1996
5 FIRE Java 2003 45 23 791 0 3370
6 FIRE Java 2004 56 18 1 0 1971
Variables not shown: housesdamaged (int), victims (int), affected (int),
evacuated (int), lossUSD (int), lossLOCAL (dbl), cropdamage (dbl),
agriculture (int), power (int), relief (int), forest (int)
summary(indoisland.agg)
Event Island Year events
FIRE :56 Java :35 Min. :1990 Min. : 1.00
FLOODS :62 Kalimantan:35 1st Qu.:2002 1st Qu.: 5.00
FOREST FIRE:19 Sulawesi :29 Median :2005 Median : 15.00
Sumatra :38 Mean :2005 Mean : 44.46
3rd Qu.:2009 3rd Qu.: 56.00
Max. :2012 Max. :525.00
deaths injured missing housesdestroyed
Min. : 0.00 Min. : 0 Min. : 0.000 Min. : 0
1st Qu.: 0.00 1st Qu.: 0 1st Qu.: 0.000 1st Qu.: 0
Median : 4.00 Median : 0 Median : 0.000 Median : 52
Mean : 18.11 Mean : 1485 Mean : 4.365 Mean : 1005
3rd Qu.: 18.00 3rd Qu.: 27 3rd Qu.: 0.000 3rd Qu.: 578
Max. :347.00 Max. :60423 Max. :150.000 Max. :27570
housesdamaged victims affected evacuated
Min. : 0 Min. :0 Min. : 0 Min. : 0
1st Qu.: 0 1st Qu.:0 1st Qu.: 0 1st Qu.: 0
Median : 0 Median :0 Median : 367 Median : 400
Mean : 1230 Mean :0 Mean : 87142 Mean : 27962
3rd Qu.: 51 3rd Qu.:0 3rd Qu.: 5879 3rd Qu.: 5389
Max. :36764 Max. :0 Max. :4558659 Max. :1084376
lossUSD lossLOCAL cropdamage agriculture
Min. :0 Min. : 0 Min. : 0 Min. : 0.00
1st Qu.:0 1st Qu.: 23 1st Qu.: 0 1st Qu.: 0.00
Median :0 Median : 2291 Median : 0 Median : 0.00
Mean :0 Mean : 1244983 Mean : 9964 Mean : 11.36
3rd Qu.:0 3rd Qu.: 21853 3rd Qu.: 1787 3rd Qu.: 4.00
Max. :0 Max. :133501384 Max. :186718 Max. :239.00
power relief forest
Min. :0 Min. :0 Min. : 0
1st Qu.:0 1st Qu.:0 1st Qu.: 0
Median :0 Median :0 Median : 0
Mean :0 Mean :0 Mean : 2403
3rd Qu.:0 3rd Qu.:0 3rd Qu.: 50
Max. :0 Max. :0 Max. :188216
head(indo.agg)
Source: local data frame [6 x 21]
Groups: Event, Province, Year [6]
Event Province Year Island events deaths injured missing
(fctr) (fctr) (int) (fctr) (int) (int) (int) (int)
1 FIRE BANGKA-BELITUNG 2008 Sumatra 29 0 0 0
2 FIRE BANTEN 2003 Java 1 0 0 0
3 FIRE BANTEN 2004 Java 2 0 0 0
4 FIRE BANTEN 2005 Java 1 0 0 0
5 FIRE BANTEN 2009 Java 1 0 0 0
6 FIRE BANTEN 2010 Java 4 2 0 0
Variables not shown: housesdestroyed (int), housesdamaged (int), victims
(int), affected (int), evacuated (int), lossUSD (int), lossLOCAL (dbl),
cropdamage (dbl), agriculture (int), power (int), relief (int), forest
(int), death (dbl)
summary(indo.agg)
Event Province Year
FIRE :162 KALIMANTAN TIMUR : 31 Min. :1990
FLOODS :290 JAWA TENGAH : 28 1st Qu.:2003
FOREST FIRE: 41 SULAWESI SELATAN : 27 Median :2006
JAWA BARAT : 26 Mean :2006
SUMATERA BARAT : 26 3rd Qu.:2010
KALIMANTAN SELATAN: 25 Max. :2012
(Other) :330
Island events deaths injured
Java :129 Min. : 1.00 Min. : 0.000 Min. : 0.0
Kalimantan: 98 1st Qu.: 2.00 1st Qu.: 0.000 1st Qu.: 0.0
Sulawesi : 90 Median : 5.00 Median : 0.000 Median : 0.0
Sumatra :176 Mean : 12.35 Mean : 5.032 Mean : 412.6
3rd Qu.: 12.00 3rd Qu.: 4.000 3rd Qu.: 3.0
Max. :183.00 Max. :347.000 Max. :60149.0
missing housesdestroyed housesdamaged victims
Min. : 0.000 Min. : 0.0 Min. : 0.0 Min. :0
1st Qu.: 0.000 1st Qu.: 0.0 1st Qu.: 0.0 1st Qu.:0
Median : 0.000 Median : 0.0 Median : 0.0 Median :0
Mean : 1.213 Mean : 279.2 Mean : 341.7 Mean :0
3rd Qu.: 0.000 3rd Qu.: 77.0 3rd Qu.: 0.0 3rd Qu.:0
Max. :140.000 Max. :21924.0 Max. :26623.0 Max. :0
affected evacuated lossUSD lossLOCAL
Min. : 0 Min. : 0 Min. :0 Min. : 0
1st Qu.: 0 1st Qu.: 0 1st Qu.:0 1st Qu.: 0
Median : 0 Median : 0 Median :0 Median : 0
Mean : 24216 Mean : 7770 Mean :0 Mean : 345969
3rd Qu.: 564 3rd Qu.: 1000 3rd Qu.:0 3rd Qu.: 1400
Max. :4515837 Max. :522569 Max. :0 Max. :133500220
cropdamage agriculture power relief
Min. : 0 Min. : 0.000 Min. :0 Min. :0
1st Qu.: 0 1st Qu.: 0.000 1st Qu.:0 1st Qu.:0
Median : 0 Median : 0.000 Median :0 Median :0
Mean : 2769 Mean : 3.156 Mean :0 Mean :0
3rd Qu.: 284 3rd Qu.: 2.000 3rd Qu.:0 3rd Qu.:0
Max. :186530 Max. :90.000 Max. :0 Max. :0
forest death
Min. : 0.0 Min. :0.0000
1st Qu.: 0.0 1st Qu.:0.0000
Median : 0.0 Median :0.0000
Mean : 667.7 Mean :0.4665
3rd Qu.: 0.0 3rd Qu.:1.0000
Max. :186022.0 Max. :1.0000
lmer(formula = lossLOCAL ~ events + housesdamaged + (1 | death),
data = floods)
coef.est coef.se
(Intercept) 70506.47 123704.71
events 4238.39 4699.44
housesdamaged -10.64 41.17
Error terms:
Groups Name Std.Dev.
death (Intercept) 0.20
Residual 1766464.21
---
number of obs: 290, groups: death, 2
AIC = 9120, DIC = 9215.9
deviance = 9163.0
\( y_{i}=\beta_0+\beta_{1}x_{i}+\beta_{2}x_{i}+\beta_{3}x_{i}+\epsilon_{i} \)
glm(formula = lossLOCAL ~ events + housesdestroyed + deaths,
data = floods)
coef.est coef.se
(Intercept) 75768.72 126330.57
events 4327.04 4727.37
housesdestroyed -9.43 57.71
deaths -1195.36 4187.71
---
n = 290, k = 4
residual deviance = 8.954042e+14, null deviance = 8.982703e+14 (difference = 2.866181e+12)
overdispersion parameter = 3.130784e+12
residual sd is sqrt(overdispersion) = 1769402.09
\( y_{i}=\beta_0+\beta_{1}x_{i}+\beta_{2}x_{i}+\beta_{3}x_{i}+\epsilon_{i} \)
Thank you